LONDON/LAGOS: Nigeria’s president described attacks in the northeast’s most heavily defended city as “the final desperate” acts of militants trying to spread fear. Many experts say the opposite is true. The blasts were a sign of strength not weakness. An assault on Maiduguri by coordinated suicide bombers points to state intelligence failures. It also shows the capacity of Islamist militants to hit urban areas despite waves of government operations against them.
The attack on Monday was the deadliest suicide bombing in Nigeria for seven years. It is still not clear which militant group carried out the assault. This uncertainty underscores the complexity of a sprawling 17-year insurgency. The conflict has killed tens of thousands of people. It has forced millions more from their homes. The bombings demonstrate troubling Nigeria jihadist resilience despite sustained military pressure.
Analysts Warn of More Attacks
Given a spate of other attacks in recent weeks, some analysts said there could have been a degree of coordination between rival groups. Both Boko Haram militants and ISWAP, an Islamic State-allied faction, have carried out operations. “We have to see this as the groups oozing confidence in their ability to wreck terror in that part of the country,” said Ikemesit Effiong, partner at SBM Intelligence, a Nigeria-based risk advisory company.
“We think this is the start of a spate of bombings,” Effiong added. “Not just in Maiduguri but also less protected urban areas in the northeast.” This assessment challenges official narratives of progress against the insurgency. President Bola Tinubu said on Tuesday he had approved additional equipment and support for the military. He promised the military would “completely defeat” the militants, repeating pledges made by previous administrations.
History of Insurgency in Northeast
Nigeria has battled Islamist militants in the northeast since 2009. Boko Haram first emerged in Maiduguri, capital of Borno State, seeking to create an Islamic state. A violent crackdown led to the death of the group’s founder in police custody. The military then drove the militants out of urban areas. Since then, the group has splintered, spawning factions. One faction declared allegiance to Islamic State and has become the most powerful. It now administers swathes of northeastern Nigeria.
The militants control substantial rural areas. The military holds towns which are entrenched, according to Vincent Foucher, senior research fellow with the National Centre for Scientific Research in Bordeaux. Even when the military targets ISWAP strongholds, gains are often temporary. “They killed a few people, seized and destroyed some infrastructure, including an ISWAP prison,” Foucher said. “But the jihadists just move away and wait the military out.”
Intelligence Failures Exposed
Malik Samuel, senior researcher at Good Governance Africa, said militant groups have the ability to strike anywhere in Borno state. Carrying out three simultaneous attacks in a city hosting the military headquarters raised many questions. These include whether bombs were smuggled into the city or assembled there. “It speaks to the intelligence failure and it shows that both factions are still very, very capable,” Samuel said.
Samuel and two other experts believe Boko Haram militants carried out the attack itself. That faction has a history of suicide bombings, whereas ISWAP has tended to avoid them. However, Effiong and two security sources did not rule out some degree of collaboration between the groups. “Clearly, it means Maiduguri is not as safe as the authorities would want people to believe,” Samuel said. “Attacking Maiduguri is symbolic for these groups.”
Escalation During Ramadan
Jihadists have escalated attacks on the Nigerian military during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. They have killed dozens of troops, including senior officers, and seized equipment. On top of this, the attack in Maiduguri indicated that the militants were “not going anywhere, anytime soon,” Samuel said. This sustained campaign demonstrates Nigeria jihadist resilience even during a period of heightened security.
Nigeria’s military said it had foiled four attacks in separate locations outside Maiduguri ahead of Monday’s bombings. However, this claim offers little comfort to residents of the city who now face renewed threat. The coordinated nature of the suicide bombings suggests sophisticated planning and execution capabilities.
US Involvement and Its Limits
The United States has had a long partnership with Nigeria’s military, providing training and selling weapons. It said it carried out air strikes in the northwest on Christmas Day to stop the targeting of Christians in the region. About 100 troops have since deployed to the country to support the military. The U.S. military is also providing intelligence from aerial surveillance.
One security source said that this intelligence led to the destruction of four ISWAP gun trucks on March 11. But Effiong said it also exposed the government to accusations of being a Western stooge, potentially fuelling recruitment among jihadis. The State Department and U.S. Africa Command did not respond to requests for comment.
Foucher said the faction that had been hit by U.S. Tomahawk missiles in December was still operational. This highlights the limitations of U.S. military action. “They can regenerate easily,” Foucher said. “There are so many different fires that are burning throughout Nigeria now. It is whack-a-mole.”
Regional Spread of Violence
As violence has spread within Nigeria, including to the northwest, the security situation has grown more complex. The northwest faces separate challenges from criminal gangs and bandits. Some of these groups have begun establishing ties with jihadist factions. This convergence creates new threats and complicates military responses.
It was not immediately clear whether U.S. troops would be involved in any response to the bombings. The U.S. partnership focuses on intelligence sharing and targeted strikes rather than ground combat. However, the presence of American advisers on Nigerian soil carries political risks for the government.
Outlook for the Insurgency
The Maiduguri bombings represent a significant propaganda victory for the militants. Hitting the capital of Borno State demonstrates reach and capability. It also undermines public confidence in the military’s ability to provide security. The attacks come at a time when the military has claimed progress in clearing militant strongholds.
Analysts remain skeptical about the prospects for a quick end to the conflict. The insurgents have demonstrated Nigeria jihadist resilience over 17 years of fighting. They have adapted to military pressure, changed tactics, and maintained recruitment. The government’s repeated promises of final defeat ring hollow to many residents of the northeast who continue to live under threat.
The military faces an adaptive enemy that controls rural territory and can strike urban centers at will. Intelligence failures leave cities vulnerable. Meanwhile, the underlying conditions that fuel the insurgency remain unaddressed. Until these change, the conflict will likely continue despite all military efforts.
